Consumer behavior is pretty easy to figure out , relative to pain avoidance. As evidenced by sky high gas prices last summer, when prices increased, demand for that product decreased. Economists use a concept called price elasticity to describe the relationship between changes in price and changes in demand.
Non-essential items, like Vermont Teddy Bears, may be fairly price elastic as they are non-essential and there are many alternative items one could buy. And those alternatives will become more and more appealing as the price of Vermont Teddy Bears rise. On the other hand, things considered to be essentials (food staples are a common example) are less elastic. People will complain, but they still need to eat.
Before last summer OPEC and many economists learned some valuable lessons about the price elasticity of gasoline in America. They discovered that when gas rose over $4.00 a gallon that Americans started selling their SUV’s, buying more fuel efficient cars, using public transportation or even riding a bike, walking or sharing a ride.
The whole notion of Carbon Cap and Trade relies upon these same market dynamics. The idea is that by putting a price on carbon emissions we will be able to use free market dynamics to reward efficiency and add costs to provide a disincentive for inefficiency or using products that harm the environment.
While much of the talk is at the industry level, it is really consumers and businesses that will be making the economic choices that will help improve our environment. While that sounds good on the surface it also means that additional costs will be passed on to consumers for things like electricity, gas, cars, food, homes and other products.
In fact, the average household may pay an extra $1,600 annually, according to a Congressional Budget Committee study. Consumers, naturally, will do their best to avoid those extra costs by changing their consumption habits.
There are programs being proposed to lessen or eliminate the impact on low income Americans, those earning less than 150% of the federal poverty level. While there is much reason to believe that the economic principals driving cap and trade are sound and will achieve environmental goals, it is also clear that this may be a tough row to hoe for many families already stressed by the turbulent economy. I respect the intent, but have concerns about the hard choices (i.e. food vs clothing) that lower and lower middle class Americans may face if that Congressional report is accurate. Of course, numbers can be twisted to meet the goals of supporters or detractors of any bills, so I will reserve judgement until I see more data.
